Paper

Monday, April 21

Fikayo Akeredolu (University of Oxford)

Title: Administrative and Fiscal Dimensions of State Capacity and Renewable Energy Adoption: Evidence from Nigeria’s 36 States

Abstract: This paper examines how state capacity, particularly its fiscal and administrative dimensions, shapes energy transition outcomes across Nigeria’s 36 states. Drawing on primary and secondary data from Nigeria’s 36 states and applying a mixed-methods design, I investigate why states exhibit variations in renewable energy policy implementation and outcomes despite operating within the same federal system. Logistic regression models highlight fiscal capacity as a key driver of renewable energy adoption, while demonstrating that financial resources alone are insufficient without robust administrative systems to translate them into effective policy implementation. The findings reveal that oil-producing states underperform in energy transitions, supporting resource curse theories that explain how resource wealth exacerbates institutional inertia and elite capture. Additionally, historical legacies influence policy outcomes indirectly through contemporary fiscal and administrative capacities, emphasizing the need for integrated institutional development. By situating Nigeria’s energy transition within the broader context of developing federal systems, the study contributes to state capacity and environmental governance literature. It also offers actionable insights for policymakers, stressing the importance of strengthening fiscal resources, administrative capacity, and strategies to overcome resource dependency.